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OREGON 2026 ELECTORAL INTELLIGENCE BRIEF

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TECHNOCRACY AI CANADA INC. · OREGON 2026 · VERIFIED MICHIGAN-PARITY ELECTION INTELLIGENCE
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Source-audited post-primary master · 13 August 2026

Oregon 2026
Electoral Cascade & District Intelligence

One integrated system spanning the statewide electorate, Governor, U.S. Senate, all 6 congressional districts, all 30 State Senate districts (15 regular 2026 contests + 15 off-cycle context profiles), and all 60 State House districts — 96 district profiles plus statewide and judicial modules.

Verification rule: exact May 2026 registration is joined to every congressional, Senate and House profile. Primary results use Oregon election reporting and cross-checks; historical baselines are kept on the current post-2021 district plan. Unverified campaign URLs are never invented.
Michigan-parity audit layer: Candidate fields, district hierarchy, party presentation, verification notes, turnout methodology, cascade model, source register and audit sections are retained in separate state-specific files. Missing values must remain marked pending verification rather than being inferred.
State2026 PrimaryHistoryGovernorU.S. Senate6 U.S. House30 Senate60 HouseJudiciaryAge / TurnoutVote by MailCascadeMethodSources
01 · TOTAL ELECTORATE

Oregon electorate funnel

3.107MMay 2026 registeredOregon SOS monthly registration
3.075MPrimary active registeredElection-night denominator
1.265MPrimary ballots countedMay 19 primary
41.14%Primary turnoutStatewide reported turnout

Party registration · May 2026

Democratic
987,632
Republican
737,076
Non-affiliated
1,159,575

Verified district scale

U.S. House
6
State Senate
30
State House
60
02 · COMPLETED MAY 19 PRIMARY

Statewide primary outcomes

Oregon primary status: voting occurred May 19, 2026. The Oregon SOS results portal reports statewide turnout of 41.14%, 1,265,182 ballots counted, and 3,074,993 active registered voters.
OfficeDemocraticRepublican / otherPrimary evidence
GovernorTina KotekChristine DrazanTina Kotek — 385,929 (83.6%); Christine Drazan — 172,444 (40.53%)
U.S. SenateJeff MerkleyDavid Brock SmithMerkley 457,006/490,457 (93.18%); Smith 107,953/366,201 (29.48%)
BOLI CommissionerChristina E. Stephenson (nonpartisan)595,583 vs Chris Lynch 341,903
03 · HISTORY / GEOGRAPHY

Baseline and boundary discipline

Critical geography rule: Oregon adopted new congressional and legislative plans on September 27, 2021. The plans were upheld by the courts and first used for the 2022 elections. All 2026 district joins therefore use the current post-2021 geography; pre-2022 district results are not silently mixed into current-boundary baselines.
D+14.42024 President statewideHarris 55.6 · Trump 41.2
D+3.42022 GovernorKotek 47.0 · Drazan 43.6
15Senate seats up30-seat chamber
60House seats upEntire chamber
04 · GOVERNOR

Statewide executive anchor

Tina KotekTina Kotek — 385,929 (83.6%)
Christine DrazanChristine Drazan — 172,444 (40.53%)

The Governor contest supplies the executive top-ticket benchmark for the cascade model. The model does not assume that its statewide margin transfers mechanically to federal or legislative districts.

05 · U.S. SENATE

Statewide federal benchmark

Jeff Merkley457,006 · 93.18% of Democratic contest vote
David Brock Smith107,953 · 29.48% of Republican contest vote

Governor ↔ Senate divergence is treated as a candidate-specific statewide delta, not as noise.

06 · 6 U.S. HOUSE DISTRICTS

Congressional candidate intelligence

OR-01Post-primary congressional matchupSuzanne Bonamici · current DD+40.7
Suzanne BonamiciDemocratic current officeholder
Post-primary congressional matchup2021 plan operative since 2022
D+40.7Safe baseline
500,614 registeredMay 2026 · D 189,807 · R 82,811
Suzanne BonamiciSuzanne Bonamici 77,306 (86.61%); Jamil O. Ahmad 11,458 (12.83%)
Barbara KahlBarbara Kahl 26,877 (71.48%); John Verbeek 10,285 (27.35%)
Verified baseline
D+40.7
2024 U.S. House general marginD+40.7
May 2026 Oregon SOSExact current district row joined
2021 adopted planCurrent boundaries used beginning 2022

SOURCE STATUS · May 2026 registration · 2026 Oregon results · historical results · boundary authority.

OR-02Post-primary congressional matchupCliff Bentz · current RR+31.1
Cliff BentzRepublican current officeholder
Post-primary congressional matchup2021 plan operative since 2022
R+31.1Safe baseline
528,607 registeredMay 2026 · D 100,709 · R 184,092
Chris BeckChris Beck 15,951 (34.39%); Mary Doyle 9,101; Rebecca Mueller 8,357; Dawn Rasmussen 6,880; Patty Snow 4,224; Peter Quince 1,258
Cliff BentzCliff Bentz 79,543 (79.59%); Peter Larson 14,565; Andrea Carr 5,353
Verified baseline
R+31.1
2024 U.S. House general marginR+31.1
May 2026 Oregon SOSExact current district row joined
2021 adopted planCurrent boundaries used beginning 2022

SOURCE STATUS · May 2026 registration · 2026 Oregon results · historical results · boundary authority.

OR-03Post-primary congressional matchupMaxine Dexter · current DD+42.6
Maxine DexterDemocratic current officeholder
Post-primary congressional matchup2021 plan operative since 2022
D+42.6Safe baseline
504,222 registeredMay 2026 · D 217,357 · R 68,187
Maxine DexterMaxine Dexter 81,643 (89.14%); Jessica Salas 7,513; Andrew Castilleja 2,082
Loran AylesLoran Ayles 14,420 (uncontested major candidate)
Verified baseline
D+42.6
2024 U.S. House general marginD+42.6
May 2026 Oregon SOSExact current district row joined
2021 adopted planCurrent boundaries used beginning 2022

SOURCE STATUS · May 2026 registration · 2026 Oregon results · historical results · boundary authority.

OR-04Post-primary congressional matchupVal Hoyle · current DD+7.8
Val HoyleDemocratic current officeholder
Post-primary congressional matchup2021 plan operative since 2022
D+7.8Competitive
531,443 registeredMay 2026 · D 166,296 · R 132,504
Val HoyleVal Hoyle 68,900 (75.15%); Melissa Bird 19,850; Daniel Bahlen 2,259
Monique DeSpainMonique DeSpain 59,232 (86.55%); Stefan Strek 8,507
Verified baseline
D+7.8
2024 U.S. House general marginD+7.8
May 2026 Oregon SOSExact current district row joined
2021 adopted planCurrent boundaries used beginning 2022

SOURCE STATUS · May 2026 registration · 2026 Oregon results · historical results · boundary authority.

OR-05Post-primary congressional matchupJanelle Bynum · current DD+2.8
Janelle BynumDemocratic current officeholder
Post-primary congressional matchup2021 plan operative since 2022
D+2.8Highly competitive
551,875 registeredMay 2026 · D 168,333 · R 147,742
Janelle BynumJanelle Bynum 70,294 (82.01%); Zeva Rosenbaum 14,951
Patti AdairPatti Adair 43,524 (59.61%); Jonathan Lockwood 28,984
Verified baseline
D+2.8
2024 U.S. House general marginD+2.8
May 2026 Oregon SOSExact current district row joined
2021 adopted planCurrent boundaries used beginning 2022

SOURCE STATUS · May 2026 registration · 2026 Oregon results · historical results · boundary authority.

OR-06Post-primary congressional matchupAndrea Salinas · current DD+6.8
Andrea SalinasDemocratic current officeholder
Post-primary congressional matchup2021 plan operative since 2022
D+6.8Competitive
489,893 registeredMay 2026 · D 145,130 · R 121,740
Andrea SalinasAndrea Salinas — uncontested Democratic nomination
David RussDavid Russ — uncontested Republican nomination
Verified baseline
D+6.8
2024 U.S. House general marginD+6.8
May 2026 Oregon SOSExact current district row joined
2021 adopted planCurrent boundaries used beginning 2022

SOURCE STATUS · May 2026 registration · 2026 Oregon results · historical results · boundary authority.

07 · 30 STATE SENATE DISTRICTS

Senate candidate & cycle intelligence

30Total districts
15Regular 2026 contests
15Off-cycle context
4 yearsSenate term
District pairing: each Senate district contains two House districts: SD-01 = HD-01/02 through SD-30 = HD-59/60.
SD-01Off-cycle Senate context profileDavid Brock Smith · current RR+42.0
David Brock SmithRepublican current officeholder
Off-cycle Senate context profile2021 plan operative since 2022
R+42.0Safe baseline
20,659 registeredMay 2026 · D 43,398 · R 116,208
—No regular 2026 Democratic Senate contest
David Brock SmithOff-cycle context profile; no regular 2026 Senate election
Verified baseline
R+42.0
2024 Senate general marginR+42.0
May 2026 Oregon SOSExact current district row joined
2021 adopted planCurrent boundaries used beginning 2022

SOURCE STATUS · May 2026 registration · 2026 Oregon results · historical results · boundary authority.

SD-02Off-cycle Senate context profileNoah Robinson · current RR+34.1
Noah RobinsonRepublican current officeholder
Off-cycle Senate context profile2021 plan operative since 2022
R+34.1Safe baseline
20,078 registeredMay 2026 · D 41,679 · R 113,405
—No regular 2026 Democratic Senate contest
Noah RobinsonOff-cycle context profile; no regular 2026 Senate election
Verified baseline
R+34.1
2024 Senate general marginR+34.1
May 2026 Oregon SOSExact current district row joined
2021 adopted planCurrent boundaries used beginning 2022

SOURCE STATUS · May 2026 registration · 2026 Oregon results · historical results · boundary authority.

SD-032026 regular Senate contestJeff Golden · current DD+3.8
Jeff GoldenDemocratic current officeholder
2026 regular Senate contest2021 plan operative since 2022
D+3.8Highly competitive
32,059 registeredMay 2026 · D 25,398 · R 102,947
Denise KrauseDenise Krause 6,078 (35.31%); Tonia Moro 5,869; Cristian Mendoza Ruvalcaba 3,051; Kevin Stine 1,766; Jim Crary 369
Brad HicksBrad Hicks — uncontested Republican nomination
Verified baseline
D+3.8
2022 Senate general marginD+3.8
May 2026 Oregon SOSExact current district row joined
2021 adopted planCurrent boundaries used beginning 2022

SOURCE STATUS · May 2026 registration · 2026 Oregon results · historical results · boundary authority.

SD-042026 regular Senate contestFloyd Prozanski · current DD+64.6
Floyd ProzanskiDemocratic current officeholder
2026 regular Senate contest2021 plan operative since 2022
D+64.6Safe baseline
38,812 registeredMay 2026 · D 15,648 · R 96,903
Floyd ProzanskiFloyd Prozanski — uncontested Democratic nomination
No listed Republican nomineeNo Republican primary nominee listed
Verified baseline
D+64.6
2022 Senate general marginD+64.6
May 2026 Oregon SOSExact current district row joined
2021 adopted planCurrent boundaries used beginning 2022

SOURCE STATUS · May 2026 registration · 2026 Oregon results · historical results · boundary authority.

SD-05Off-cycle Senate context profileDick Anderson · current RR+7.6
Dick AndersonRepublican current officeholder
Off-cycle Senate context profile2021 plan operative since 2022
R+7.6Competitive
31,696 registeredMay 2026 · D 29,748 · R 113,167
—No regular 2026 Democratic Senate contest
Dick AndersonOff-cycle context profile; no regular 2026 Senate election
Verified baseline
R+7.6
2024 Senate general marginR+7.6
May 2026 Oregon SOSExact current district row joined
2021 adopted planCurrent boundaries used beginning 2022

SOURCE STATUS · May 2026 registration · 2026 Oregon results · historical results · boundary authority.

SD-062026 regular Senate contestCedric Hayden · current RR+30.6
Cedric HaydenRepublican current officeholder
2026 regular Senate contest2021 plan operative since 2022
R+30.6Safe baseline
24,779 registeredMay 2026 · D 38,482 · R 112,691
Sierrah WilliamsSierrah Williams — uncontested Democratic nomination
Jack TibbettsJack Tibbetts ~51.2%; Jami Cate ~44%; Nicole De Graff remainder
Verified baseline
R+30.6
2022 Senate general marginR+30.6
May 2026 Oregon SOSExact current district row joined
2021 adopted planCurrent boundaries used beginning 2022

SOURCE STATUS · May 2026 registration · 2026 Oregon results · historical results · boundary authority.

SD-072026 regular Senate contestJames Manning · current DD+29.2
James ManningDemocratic current officeholder
2026 regular Senate contest2021 plan operative since 2022
D+29.2Safe baseline
39,622 registeredMay 2026 · D 21,329 · R 107,467
James ManningJames Manning — uncontested Democratic nomination
Jack HuffJack Huff — uncontested Republican nomination
Verified baseline
D+29.2
2022 Senate general marginD+29.2
May 2026 Oregon SOSExact current district row joined
2021 adopted planCurrent boundaries used beginning 2022

SOURCE STATUS · May 2026 registration · 2026 Oregon results · historical results · boundary authority.

SD-082026 regular Senate contestSara Gelser Blouin · current DD+19.6
Sara Gelser BlouinDemocratic current officeholder
2026 regular Senate contest2021 plan operative since 2022
D+19.6Likely
33,576 registeredMay 2026 · D 22,629 · R 97,782
Sara Gelser BlouinSara Gelser Blouin — uncontested Democratic nomination
Valerie Draper WoldeitValerie Draper Woldeit — uncontested Republican nomination
Verified baseline
D+19.6
2022 Senate general marginD+19.6
May 2026 Oregon SOSExact current district row joined
2021 adopted planCurrent boundaries used beginning 2022

SOURCE STATUS · May 2026 registration · 2026 Oregon results · historical results · boundary authority.

SD-09Off-cycle Senate context profileFred Girod · current RR+37.9
Fred GirodRepublican current officeholder
Off-cycle Senate context profile2021 plan operative since 2022
R+37.9Safe baseline
22,073 registeredMay 2026 · D 38,556 · R 107,119
—No regular 2026 Democratic Senate contest
Fred GirodOff-cycle context profile; no regular 2026 Senate election
Verified baseline
R+37.9
2024 Senate general marginR+37.9
May 2026 Oregon SOSExact current district row joined
2021 adopted planCurrent boundaries used beginning 2022

SOURCE STATUS · May 2026 registration · 2026 Oregon results · historical results · boundary authority.

SD-102026 regular Senate contestDeb Patterson · current DD+7.0
Deb PattersonDemocratic current officeholder
2026 regular Senate contest2021 plan operative since 2022
D+7.0Competitive
30,636 registeredMay 2026 · D 23,748 · R 99,456
Deb PattersonDeb Patterson — uncontested Democratic nomination
Angela PlowheadAngela Plowhead — uncontested Republican nomination
Verified baseline
D+7.0
2022 Senate general marginD+7.0
May 2026 Oregon SOSExact current district row joined
2021 adopted planCurrent boundaries used beginning 2022

SOURCE STATUS · May 2026 registration · 2026 Oregon results · historical results · boundary authority.

SD-112026 regular Senate contestKim Thatcher · current RR+5.2
Kim ThatcherRepublican current officeholder
2026 regular Senate contest2021 plan operative since 2022
R+5.2Competitive
22,563 registeredMay 2026 · D 18,737 · R 85,934
Virginia StapletonVirginia Stapleton 5,997 (~66.1%); Teresa Alonso Leon 3,070 (~33.9%)
Tracy CramerTracy Cramer — uncontested Republican nomination
Verified baseline
R+5.2
2022 Senate general marginR+5.2
May 2026 Oregon SOSExact current district row joined
2021 adopted planCurrent boundaries used beginning 2022

SOURCE STATUS · May 2026 registration · 2026 Oregon results · historical results · boundary authority.

SD-12Off-cycle Senate context profileBruce Starr · current RR+21.9
Bruce StarrRepublican current officeholder
Off-cycle Senate context profile2021 plan operative since 2022
R+21.9Likely
25,934 registeredMay 2026 · D 33,678 · R 106,338
—No regular 2026 Democratic Senate contest
Bruce StarrOff-cycle context profile; no regular 2026 Senate election
Verified baseline
R+21.9
2024 Senate general marginR+21.9
May 2026 Oregon SOSExact current district row joined
2021 adopted planCurrent boundaries used beginning 2022

SOURCE STATUS · May 2026 registration · 2026 Oregon results · historical results · boundary authority.

SD-132026 regular Senate contestCourtney Neron Misslin · current DD+16.2
Courtney Neron MisslinDemocratic current officeholder
2026 regular Senate contest2021 plan operative since 2022
D+16.2Likely
35,077 registeredMay 2026 · D 21,667 · R 100,687
Courtney Neron MisslinCourtney Neron Misslin 9,803 (~99.1%)
Glenn LancasterGlenn Lancaster 5,137 (~98.6%)
Verified baseline
D+16.2
2022 Senate general marginD+16.2
May 2026 Oregon SOSExact current district row joined
2021 adopted planCurrent boundaries used beginning 2022

SOURCE STATUS · May 2026 registration · 2026 Oregon results · historical results · boundary authority.

SD-14Off-cycle Senate context profileKate Lieber · current DD+71.0
Kate LieberDemocratic current officeholder
Off-cycle Senate context profile2021 plan operative since 2022
D+71.0Safe baseline
48,538 registeredMay 2026 · D 11,736 · R 99,265
Kate LieberOff-cycle context profile; no regular 2026 Senate election
—No regular 2026 Republican Senate contest
Verified baseline
D+71.0
2024 Senate general marginD+71.0
May 2026 Oregon SOSExact current district row joined
2021 adopted planCurrent boundaries used beginning 2022

SOURCE STATUS · May 2026 registration · 2026 Oregon results · historical results · boundary authority.

SD-152026 regular Senate contestJaneen Sollman · current DD+11.2
Janeen SollmanDemocratic current officeholder
2026 regular Senate contest2021 plan operative since 2022
D+11.2Lean / watch
28,066 registeredMay 2026 · D 16,502 · R 89,127
Myrna MuñozMyrna Muñoz 6,797 (52.2%); Janeen Sollman 5,947 (45.6%); Nelly Donis-Purcell 286
Harold HutchisonHarold Hutchison 4,393 (100%)
Verified baseline
D+11.2
2022 Senate general marginD+11.2
May 2026 Oregon SOSExact current district row joined
2021 adopted planCurrent boundaries used beginning 2022

SOURCE STATUS · May 2026 registration · 2026 Oregon results · historical results · boundary authority.

SD-162026 regular Senate contestSuzanne Weber · current RR+13.2
Suzanne WeberRepublican current officeholder
2026 regular Senate contest2021 plan operative since 2022
R+13.2Lean / watch
31,602 registeredMay 2026 · D 31,310 · R 114,534
Rachel ArmitageRachel Armitage 12,446 (~86.5%); Jordan Gutierrez 1,196; Aaron Dickie 750
Courtney BangsCourtney Bangs 10,587 (~62.5%); Tripp Dietrich 5,155; Frank Mansfield 1,184
Verified baseline
R+13.2
2022 Senate general marginR+13.2
May 2026 Oregon SOSExact current district row joined
2021 adopted planCurrent boundaries used beginning 2022

SOURCE STATUS · May 2026 registration · 2026 Oregon results · historical results · boundary authority.

SD-172026 regular Senate contestLisa Reynolds · current DD+58.0
Lisa ReynoldsDemocratic current officeholder
2026 regular Senate contest2021 plan operative since 2022
D+58.0Safe baseline
41,797 registeredMay 2026 · D 10,067 · R 96,200
Lisa ReynoldsLisa Reynolds 14,485 (~86.6%); Autumn Sharp 2,245
John CheeJohn Chee 1,710 (~96.7%)
Verified baseline
D+58.0
2022 Senate general marginD+58.0
May 2026 Oregon SOSExact current district row joined
2021 adopted planCurrent boundaries used beginning 2022

SOURCE STATUS · May 2026 registration · 2026 Oregon results · historical results · boundary authority.

SD-18Off-cycle Senate context profileWlnsvey Campos · current DD+25.5
Wlnsvey CamposDemocratic current officeholder
Off-cycle Senate context profile2021 plan operative since 2022
D+25.5Safe baseline
32,283 registeredMay 2026 · D 16,001 · R 95,268
Wlnsvey CamposOff-cycle context profile; no regular 2026 Senate election
—No regular 2026 Republican Senate contest
Verified baseline
D+25.5
2024 Senate general marginD+25.5
May 2026 Oregon SOSExact current district row joined
2021 adopted planCurrent boundaries used beginning 2022

SOURCE STATUS · May 2026 registration · 2026 Oregon results · historical results · boundary authority.

SD-192026 regular Senate contestRob Wagner · current DD+32.2
Rob WagnerDemocratic current officeholder
2026 regular Senate contest2021 plan operative since 2022
D+32.2Safe baseline
43,351 registeredMay 2026 · D 19,642 · R 103,307
Rob WagnerRob Wagner — uncontested Democratic nomination
Mary DirksenMary Dirksen — uncontested Republican nomination
Verified baseline
D+32.2
2022 Senate general marginD+32.2
May 2026 Oregon SOSExact current district row joined
2021 adopted planCurrent boundaries used beginning 2022

SOURCE STATUS · May 2026 registration · 2026 Oregon results · historical results · boundary authority.

SD-202026 regular Senate contestMark Meek · current DD+0.8
Mark MeekDemocratic current officeholder
2026 regular Senate contest2021 plan operative since 2022
D+0.8Toss-up baseline
32,971 registeredMay 2026 · D 23,378 · R 104,571
Mark MeekMark Meek — uncontested Democratic nomination
Michele StrohMichele Stroh — uncontested Republican nomination
Verified baseline
D+0.8
2022 Senate general marginD+0.8
May 2026 Oregon SOSExact current district row joined
2021 adopted planCurrent boundaries used beginning 2022

SOURCE STATUS · May 2026 registration · 2026 Oregon results · historical results · boundary authority.

SD-21Off-cycle Senate context profileKathleen Taylor · current DUncontested / no two-party margin
Kathleen TaylorDemocratic current officeholder
Off-cycle Senate context profile2021 plan operative since 2022
Uncontested / no two-party marginSafe baseline
61,641 registeredMay 2026 · D 7,981 · R 110,491
Kathleen TaylorOff-cycle context profile; no regular 2026 Senate election
—No regular 2026 Republican Senate contest
Verified baseline
Uncontested / no two-party margin
2024 Senate general marginUncontested / no two-party margin
May 2026 Oregon SOSExact current district row joined
2021 adopted planCurrent boundaries used beginning 2022

SOURCE STATUS · May 2026 registration · 2026 Oregon results · historical results · boundary authority.

SD-22Off-cycle Senate context profileLew Frederick · current DD+81.4
Lew FrederickDemocratic current officeholder
Off-cycle Senate context profile2021 plan operative since 2022
D+81.4Safe baseline
60,381 registeredMay 2026 · D 4,667 · R 105,319
Lew FrederickOff-cycle context profile; no regular 2026 Senate election
—No regular 2026 Republican Senate contest
Verified baseline
D+81.4
2024 Senate general marginD+81.4
May 2026 Oregon SOSExact current district row joined
2021 adopted planCurrent boundaries used beginning 2022

SOURCE STATUS · May 2026 registration · 2026 Oregon results · historical results · boundary authority.

SD-23Off-cycle Senate context profileKhanh Pham · current DUncontested / no two-party margin
Khanh PhamDemocratic current officeholder
Off-cycle Senate context profile2021 plan operative since 2022
Uncontested / no two-party marginSafe baseline
52,891 registeredMay 2026 · D 7,829 · R 101,634
Khanh PhamOff-cycle context profile; no regular 2026 Senate election
—No regular 2026 Republican Senate contest
Verified baseline
Uncontested / no two-party margin
2024 Senate general marginUncontested / no two-party margin
May 2026 Oregon SOSExact current district row joined
2021 adopted planCurrent boundaries used beginning 2022

SOURCE STATUS · May 2026 registration · 2026 Oregon results · historical results · boundary authority.

SD-242026 regular Senate contestKayse Jama · current DD+17.6
Kayse JamaDemocratic current officeholder
2026 regular Senate contest2021 plan operative since 2022
D+17.6Likely
31,395 registeredMay 2026 · D 15,324 · R 91,751
Kayse JamaKayse Jama — uncontested Democratic nomination
No listed Republican nomineeNo Republican primary nominee listed
Verified baseline
D+17.6
2022 Senate general marginD+17.6
May 2026 Oregon SOSExact current district row joined
2021 adopted planCurrent boundaries used beginning 2022

SOURCE STATUS · May 2026 registration · 2026 Oregon results · historical results · boundary authority.

SD-25Off-cycle Senate context profileChris Gorsek · current DD+12.0
Chris GorsekDemocratic current officeholder
Off-cycle Senate context profile2021 plan operative since 2022
D+12.0Lean / watch
27,596 registeredMay 2026 · D 17,968 · R 91,377
Chris GorsekOff-cycle context profile; no regular 2026 Senate election
—No regular 2026 Republican Senate contest
Verified baseline
D+12.0
2024 Senate general marginD+12.0
May 2026 Oregon SOSExact current district row joined
2021 adopted planCurrent boundaries used beginning 2022

SOURCE STATUS · May 2026 registration · 2026 Oregon results · historical results · boundary authority.

SD-262026 regular Senate contestChristine Drazan · current RR+18.4
Christine DrazanRepublican current officeholder
2026 regular Senate contest2021 plan operative since 2022
R+18.4Likely
29,657 registeredMay 2026 · D 33,027 · R 110,539
Nicole BassettNicole Bassett 13,121 (~91.8%); Matthew Favro 1,178
Jeff HelfrichJeff Helfrich 10,773 (~98.6%)
Verified baseline
R+18.4
2022 Senate general marginR+18.4
May 2026 Oregon SOSExact current district row joined
2021 adopted planCurrent boundaries used beginning 2022

SOURCE STATUS · May 2026 registration · 2026 Oregon results · historical results · boundary authority.

SD-27Off-cycle Senate context profileAnthony Broadman · current DD+18.2
Anthony BroadmanDemocratic current officeholder
Off-cycle Senate context profile2021 plan operative since 2022
D+18.2Likely
38,051 registeredMay 2026 · D 27,161 · R 116,411
Anthony BroadmanOff-cycle context profile; no regular 2026 Senate election
—No regular 2026 Republican Senate contest
Verified baseline
D+18.2
2024 Senate general marginD+18.2
May 2026 Oregon SOSExact current district row joined
2021 adopted planCurrent boundaries used beginning 2022

SOURCE STATUS · May 2026 registration · 2026 Oregon results · historical results · boundary authority.

SD-28Off-cycle Senate context profileDiane Linthicum · current RR+39.0
Diane LinthicumRepublican current officeholder
Off-cycle Senate context profile2021 plan operative since 2022
R+39.0Safe baseline
18,635 registeredMay 2026 · D 41,306 · R 111,541
—No regular 2026 Democratic Senate contest
Diane LinthicumOff-cycle context profile; no regular 2026 Senate election
Verified baseline
R+39.0
2024 Senate general marginR+39.0
May 2026 Oregon SOSExact current district row joined
2021 adopted planCurrent boundaries used beginning 2022

SOURCE STATUS · May 2026 registration · 2026 Oregon results · historical results · boundary authority.

SD-29Off-cycle Senate context profileTodd Nash · current RR+63.8
Todd NashRepublican current officeholder
Off-cycle Senate context profile2021 plan operative since 2022
R+63.8Safe baseline
15,057 registeredMay 2026 · D 34,128 · R 96,243
—No regular 2026 Democratic Senate contest
Todd NashOff-cycle context profile; no regular 2026 Senate election
Verified baseline
R+63.8
2024 Senate general marginR+63.8
May 2026 Oregon SOSExact current district row joined
2021 adopted planCurrent boundaries used beginning 2022

SOURCE STATUS · May 2026 registration · 2026 Oregon results · historical results · boundary authority.

SD-30Off-cycle Senate context profileMike McLane · current RUncontested / no two-party margin
Mike McLaneRepublican current officeholder
Off-cycle Senate context profile2021 plan operative since 2022
Uncontested / no two-party marginSafe baseline
16,156 registeredMay 2026 · D 44,352 · R 108,972
—No regular 2026 Democratic Senate contest
Mike McLaneOff-cycle context profile; no regular 2026 Senate election
Verified baseline
Uncontested / no two-party margin
2024 Senate general marginUncontested / no two-party margin
May 2026 Oregon SOSExact current district row joined
2021 adopted planCurrent boundaries used beginning 2022

SOURCE STATUS · May 2026 registration · 2026 Oregon results · historical results · boundary authority.

08 · 60 STATE HOUSE DISTRICTS

State House candidate intelligence

HD-012026 State House contestCourt Boice · current RR+34.7
Court BoiceRepublican current officeholder
2026 State House contest2021 plan operative since 2022
R+34.7Safe baseline
10,721 registeredMay 2026 · D 21,266 · R 58,664
Bret CecilBret Cecil — uncontested D
Court BoiceCourt Boice — uncontested R
Verified baseline
R+34.7
2024 State House general marginR+34.7
May 2026 Oregon SOSExact current district row joined
2021 adopted planCurrent boundaries used beginning 2022

SOURCE STATUS · May 2026 registration · 2026 Oregon results · historical results · boundary authority.

HD-022026 State House contestVirgle Osborne · current RR+42.6
Virgle OsborneRepublican current officeholder
2026 State House contest2021 plan operative since 2022
R+42.6Safe baseline
9,938 registeredMay 2026 · D 22,132 · R 57,544
—No Democratic primary nominee listed
Virgle OsborneVirgle Osborne — uncontested R
Verified baseline
R+42.6
2024 State House general marginR+42.6
May 2026 Oregon SOSExact current district row joined
2021 adopted planCurrent boundaries used beginning 2022

SOURCE STATUS · May 2026 registration · 2026 Oregon results · historical results · boundary authority.

HD-032026 State House contestDwayne Yunker · current RR+35.6
Dwayne YunkerRepublican current officeholder
2026 State House contest2021 plan operative since 2022
R+35.6Safe baseline
10,364 registeredMay 2026 · D 19,027 · R 55,245
Susan Fischer-MakiSusan Fischer-Maki — uncontested D
Dwayne YunkerDwayne Yunker ~62.4%; Seth Benham ~37.3%
Verified baseline
R+35.6
2024 State House general marginR+35.6
May 2026 Oregon SOSExact current district row joined
2021 adopted planCurrent boundaries used beginning 2022

SOURCE STATUS · May 2026 registration · 2026 Oregon results · historical results · boundary authority.

HD-042026 State House contestAlek Skarlatos · current RR+40.5
Alek SkarlatosRepublican current officeholder
2026 State House contest2021 plan operative since 2022
R+40.5Safe baseline
9,714 registeredMay 2026 · D 22,652 · R 58,160
—No Democratic primary nominee listed
Alek SkarlatosAlek Skarlatos — uncontested R
Verified baseline
R+40.5
2024 State House general marginR+40.5
May 2026 Oregon SOSExact current district row joined
2021 adopted planCurrent boundaries used beginning 2022

SOURCE STATUS · May 2026 registration · 2026 Oregon results · historical results · boundary authority.

HD-052026 State House contestPam Marsh · current DD+28.2
Pam MarshDemocratic current officeholder
2026 State House contest2021 plan operative since 2022
D+28.2Safe baseline
20,761 registeredMay 2026 · D 11,319 · R 53,892
Pam MarshPam Marsh — uncontested D
Alexander KrigsvoldAlexander Krigsvold — uncontested R
Verified baseline
D+28.2
2024 State House general marginD+28.2
May 2026 Oregon SOSExact current district row joined
2021 adopted planCurrent boundaries used beginning 2022

SOURCE STATUS · May 2026 registration · 2026 Oregon results · historical results · boundary authority.

HD-062026 State House contestKim Wallan · current RR+16.1
Kim WallanRepublican current officeholder
2026 State House contest2021 plan operative since 2022
R+16.1Likely
11,298 registeredMay 2026 · D 14,079 · R 49,055
John HolmJohn Holm — uncontested D
Kim WallanKim Wallan — uncontested R
Verified baseline
R+16.1
2024 State House general marginR+16.1
May 2026 Oregon SOSExact current district row joined
2021 adopted planCurrent boundaries used beginning 2022

SOURCE STATUS · May 2026 registration · 2026 Oregon results · historical results · boundary authority.

HD-072026 State House contestJohn Lively · current DD+11.8
John LivelyDemocratic current officeholder
2026 State House contest2021 plan operative since 2022
D+11.8Lean / watch
15,669 registeredMay 2026 · D 11,547 · R 51,938
Kori RodleyKori Rodley ~58%; Ky Fireside ~30.3%; K.C. Huffman remainder
Adam WilsonAdam Wilson — uncontested R
Verified baseline
D+11.8
2024 State House general marginD+11.8
May 2026 Oregon SOSExact current district row joined
2021 adopted planCurrent boundaries used beginning 2022

SOURCE STATUS · May 2026 registration · 2026 Oregon results · historical results · boundary authority.

HD-082026 State House contestLisa Fragala · current DUncontested / no two-party margin
Lisa FragalaDemocratic current officeholder
2026 State House contest2021 plan operative since 2022
Uncontested / no two-party marginSafe baseline
23,143 registeredMay 2026 · D 4,101 · R 44,965
Lisa FragalaLisa Fragala — uncontested D
Bill VivianBill Vivian — uncontested R
Verified baseline
Uncontested / no two-party margin
2024 State House general marginUncontested / no two-party margin
May 2026 Oregon SOSExact current district row joined
2021 adopted planCurrent boundaries used beginning 2022

SOURCE STATUS · May 2026 registration · 2026 Oregon results · historical results · boundary authority.

HD-092026 State House contestBoomer Wright · current RR+23.9
Boomer WrightRepublican current officeholder
2026 State House contest2021 plan operative since 2022
R+23.9Likely
13,888 registeredMay 2026 · D 16,209 · R 55,839
John ScheirmanJohn Scheirman — uncontested D
Claire LynnClaire Lynn ~76.5%; Troy Cribbins ~23.1%
Verified baseline
R+23.9
2024 State House general marginR+23.9
May 2026 Oregon SOSExact current district row joined
2021 adopted planCurrent boundaries used beginning 2022

SOURCE STATUS · May 2026 registration · 2026 Oregon results · historical results · boundary authority.

HD-102026 State House contestDavid Gomberg · current DUncontested / no two-party margin
David GombergDemocratic current officeholder
2026 State House contest2021 plan operative since 2022
Uncontested / no two-party marginSafe baseline
17,808 registeredMay 2026 · D 13,539 · R 57,328
David GombergDavid Gomberg — uncontested D
—No Republican primary nominee listed
Verified baseline
Uncontested / no two-party margin
2024 State House general marginUncontested / no two-party margin
May 2026 Oregon SOSExact current district row joined
2021 adopted planCurrent boundaries used beginning 2022

SOURCE STATUS · May 2026 registration · 2026 Oregon results · historical results · boundary authority.

HD-112026 State House contestJami Cate · current RR+48.0
Jami CateRepublican current officeholder
2026 State House contest2021 plan operative since 2022
R+48.0Safe baseline
9,636 registeredMay 2026 · D 20,990 · R 55,695
Ivan MaluskiIvan Maluski — uncontested D
Ken JackolaKen Jackola ~56.8%; Angelita Sanchez ~42.9% in reported GOP contest
Verified baseline
R+48.0
2024 State House general marginR+48.0
May 2026 Oregon SOSExact current district row joined
2021 adopted planCurrent boundaries used beginning 2022

SOURCE STATUS · May 2026 registration · 2026 Oregon results · historical results · boundary authority.

HD-122026 State House contestDarin Harbick · current RR+15.5
Darin HarbickRepublican current officeholder
2026 State House contest2021 plan operative since 2022
R+15.5Likely
15,143 registeredMay 2026 · D 17,492 · R 56,996
Amber SmithAmber Smith — uncontested D
Darin HarbickDarin Harbick — uncontested R
Verified baseline
R+15.5
2024 State House general marginR+15.5
May 2026 Oregon SOSExact current district row joined
2021 adopted planCurrent boundaries used beginning 2022

SOURCE STATUS · May 2026 registration · 2026 Oregon results · historical results · boundary authority.

HD-132026 State House contestNancy Nathanson · current DD+33.1
Nancy NathansonDemocratic current officeholder
2026 State House contest2021 plan operative since 2022
D+33.1Safe baseline
21,826 registeredMay 2026 · D 11,221 · R 56,012
Nancy NathansonNancy Nathanson ~92.8%; Kathleen Damewood ~6.9%
Jonathan AbrahamsenJonathan Abrahamsen — uncontested R
Verified baseline
D+33.1
2024 State House general marginD+33.1
May 2026 Oregon SOSExact current district row joined
2021 adopted planCurrent boundaries used beginning 2022

SOURCE STATUS · May 2026 registration · 2026 Oregon results · historical results · boundary authority.

HD-142026 State House contestJulie Fahey · current DUncontested / no two-party margin
Julie FaheyDemocratic current officeholder
2026 State House contest2021 plan operative since 2022
Uncontested / no two-party marginSafe baseline
17,796 registeredMay 2026 · D 10,108 · R 51,455
Julie FaheyJulie Fahey ~93%; Erik Glass ~6.7%
Kevin BurtonKevin Burton — uncontested R
Verified baseline
Uncontested / no two-party margin
2024 State House general marginUncontested / no two-party margin
May 2026 Oregon SOSExact current district row joined
2021 adopted planCurrent boundaries used beginning 2022

SOURCE STATUS · May 2026 registration · 2026 Oregon results · historical results · boundary authority.

HD-152026 State House contestShelly Boshart Davis · current RR+17.5
Shelly Boshart DavisRepublican current officeholder
2026 State House contest2021 plan operative since 2022
R+17.5Likely
14,323 registeredMay 2026 · D 16,403 · R 54,985
Joanna RobinsonJoanna Robinson — uncontested D
Shelly Boshart DavisShelly Boshart Davis — uncontested R
Verified baseline
R+17.5
2024 State House general marginR+17.5
May 2026 Oregon SOSExact current district row joined
2021 adopted planCurrent boundaries used beginning 2022

SOURCE STATUS · May 2026 registration · 2026 Oregon results · historical results · boundary authority.

HD-162026 State House contestSarah Finger McDonald · current DD+66.9
Sarah Finger McDonaldDemocratic current officeholder
2026 State House contest2021 plan operative since 2022
D+66.9Safe baseline
19,253 registeredMay 2026 · D 6,226 · R 42,797
Sarah McDonaldSarah McDonald — uncontested D
—No Republican primary nominee listed
Verified baseline
D+66.9
2024 State House general marginD+66.9
May 2026 Oregon SOSExact current district row joined
2021 adopted planCurrent boundaries used beginning 2022

SOURCE STATUS · May 2026 registration · 2026 Oregon results · historical results · boundary authority.

HD-172026 State House contestEd Diehl · current RR+38.7
Ed DiehlRepublican current officeholder
2026 State House contest2021 plan operative since 2022
R+38.7Safe baseline
10,988 registeredMay 2026 · D 18,273 · R 52,669
David NelsonDavid Nelson — uncontested D
Dan FarringtonDan Farrington ~51.4%; Beth Jones ~41.5%; Ron Nalley remainder
Verified baseline
R+38.7
2024 State House general marginR+38.7
May 2026 Oregon SOSExact current district row joined
2021 adopted planCurrent boundaries used beginning 2022

SOURCE STATUS · May 2026 registration · 2026 Oregon results · historical results · boundary authority.

HD-182026 State House contestRick Lewis · current RR+41.8
Rick LewisRepublican current officeholder
2026 State House contest2021 plan operative since 2022
R+41.8Safe baseline
11,085 registeredMay 2026 · D 20,283 · R 54,450
—No Democratic primary nominee listed
Amanda StaehelyAmanda Staehely ~42.7%; Starr Bryan ~34%; other GOP candidates remainder
Verified baseline
R+41.8
2024 State House general marginR+41.8
May 2026 Oregon SOSExact current district row joined
2021 adopted planCurrent boundaries used beginning 2022

SOURCE STATUS · May 2026 registration · 2026 Oregon results · historical results · boundary authority.

HD-192026 State House contestTom Andersen · current DD+8.7
Tom AndersenDemocratic current officeholder
2026 State House contest2021 plan operative since 2022
D+8.7Competitive
14,809 registeredMay 2026 · D 11,097 · R 48,598
Tom AndersenTom Andersen — uncontested D
Anna MunsonAnna Munson — uncontested R
Verified baseline
D+8.7
2024 State House general marginD+8.7
May 2026 Oregon SOSExact current district row joined
2021 adopted planCurrent boundaries used beginning 2022

SOURCE STATUS · May 2026 registration · 2026 Oregon results · historical results · boundary authority.

HD-202026 State House contestPaul Evans · current DD+16.2
Paul EvansDemocratic current officeholder
2026 State House contest2021 plan operative since 2022
D+16.2Likely
15,827 registeredMay 2026 · D 12,651 · R 50,858
Paul EvansPaul Evans ~87.9%; Ruby Clark ~11.7%
Andrew FudgeAndrew Fudge ~62.9%; Alexander Martin ~34.8%
Verified baseline
D+16.2
2024 State House general marginD+16.2
May 2026 Oregon SOSExact current district row joined
2021 adopted planCurrent boundaries used beginning 2022

SOURCE STATUS · May 2026 registration · 2026 Oregon results · historical results · boundary authority.

HD-212026 State House contestKevin Mannix · current RR+3.8
Kevin MannixRepublican current officeholder
2026 State House contest2021 plan operative since 2022
R+3.8Highly competitive
12,708 registeredMay 2026 · D 11,157 · R 46,351
Michael WelshMichael Welsh — uncontested D
Kevin MannixKevin Mannix ~85.8%; Art Stevenson ~13.5%
Verified baseline
R+3.8
2024 State House general marginR+3.8
May 2026 Oregon SOSExact current district row joined
2021 adopted planCurrent boundaries used beginning 2022

SOURCE STATUS · May 2026 registration · 2026 Oregon results · historical results · boundary authority.

HD-222026 State House contestLesly Muñoz · current DD+0.8
Lesly MuñozDemocratic current officeholder
2026 State House contest2021 plan operative since 2022
D+0.8Toss-up baseline
9,855 registeredMay 2026 · D 7,580 · R 39,583
Lesly MuñozLesly Muñoz — uncontested D
Noemi LegaspiNoemi Legaspi — uncontested R
Verified baseline
D+0.8
2024 State House general marginD+0.8
May 2026 Oregon SOSExact current district row joined
2021 adopted planCurrent boundaries used beginning 2022

SOURCE STATUS · May 2026 registration · 2026 Oregon results · historical results · boundary authority.

HD-232026 State House contestAnna Scharf · current RR+24.2
Anna ScharfRepublican current officeholder
2026 State House contest2021 plan operative since 2022
R+24.2Likely
13,071 registeredMay 2026 · D 18,524 · R 54,719
Kriss WrightKriss Wright — uncontested D
Anna ScharfAnna Scharf — uncontested R
Verified baseline
R+24.2
2024 State House general marginR+24.2
May 2026 Oregon SOSExact current district row joined
2021 adopted planCurrent boundaries used beginning 2022

SOURCE STATUS · May 2026 registration · 2026 Oregon results · historical results · boundary authority.

HD-242026 State House contestLucetta Elmer · current RR+19.4
Lucetta ElmerRepublican current officeholder
2026 State House contest2021 plan operative since 2022
R+19.4Likely
12,863 registeredMay 2026 · D 15,154 · R 51,619
Andrew BrunelloAndrew Brunello — uncontested D
Lucetta ElmerLucetta Elmer — uncontested R
Verified baseline
R+19.4
2024 State House general marginR+19.4
May 2026 Oregon SOSExact current district row joined
2021 adopted planCurrent boundaries used beginning 2022

SOURCE STATUS · May 2026 registration · 2026 Oregon results · historical results · boundary authority.

HD-252026 State House contestBen Bowman · current DD+35.4
Ben BowmanDemocratic current officeholder
2026 State House contest2021 plan operative since 2022
D+35.4Safe baseline
18,844 registeredMay 2026 · D 9,076 · R 49,919
Ben BowmanBen Bowman — uncontested D
—No Republican primary nominee listed
Verified baseline
D+35.4
2024 State House general marginD+35.4
May 2026 Oregon SOSExact current district row joined
2021 adopted planCurrent boundaries used beginning 2022

SOURCE STATUS · May 2026 registration · 2026 Oregon results · historical results · boundary authority.

HD-262026 State House contestSue Rieke Smith · current DD+12.3
Sue Rieke SmithDemocratic current officeholder
2026 State House contest2021 plan operative since 2022
D+12.3Lean / watch
16,233 registeredMay 2026 · D 12,591 · R 50,768
Sue Rieke SmithSue Rieke Smith — uncontested D
Stephanie CarkinStephanie Carkin — uncontested R
Verified baseline
D+12.3
2024 State House general marginD+12.3
May 2026 Oregon SOSExact current district row joined
2021 adopted planCurrent boundaries used beginning 2022

SOURCE STATUS · May 2026 registration · 2026 Oregon results · historical results · boundary authority.

HD-272026 State House contestKen Helm · current DD+48.2
Ken HelmDemocratic current officeholder
2026 State House contest2021 plan operative since 2022
D+48.2Safe baseline
20,073 registeredMay 2026 · D 6,841 · R 47,029
Tammy CarpenterTammy Carpenter ~52.6%; Ashley Hartmeier-Prigg ~47.1%
G. Mark NormanG. Mark Norman — uncontested R
Verified baseline
D+48.2
2024 State House general marginD+48.2
May 2026 Oregon SOSExact current district row joined
2021 adopted planCurrent boundaries used beginning 2022

SOURCE STATUS · May 2026 registration · 2026 Oregon results · historical results · boundary authority.

HD-282026 State House contestDacia Grayber · current DD+71.8
Dacia GrayberDemocratic current officeholder
2026 State House contest2021 plan operative since 2022
D+71.8Safe baseline
28,465 registeredMay 2026 · D 4,895 · R 52,236
Dacia GrayberDacia Grayber — uncontested D
Randall FryerRandall Fryer — uncontested R
Verified baseline
D+71.8
2024 State House general marginD+71.8
May 2026 Oregon SOSExact current district row joined
2021 adopted planCurrent boundaries used beginning 2022

SOURCE STATUS · May 2026 registration · 2026 Oregon results · historical results · boundary authority.

HD-292026 State House contestSusan McLain · current DUncontested / no two-party margin
Susan McLainDemocratic current officeholder
2026 State House contest2021 plan operative since 2022
Uncontested / no two-party marginSafe baseline
13,519 registeredMay 2026 · D 9,313 · R 45,467
Susan McLainSusan McLain ~75.8% in Democratic primary
Mark WatsonMark Watson — Republican field/nominee
Verified baseline
Uncontested / no two-party margin
2024 State House general marginUncontested / no two-party margin
May 2026 Oregon SOSExact current district row joined
2021 adopted planCurrent boundaries used beginning 2022

SOURCE STATUS · May 2026 registration · 2026 Oregon results · historical results · boundary authority.

HD-302026 State House contestNathan Sosa · current DUncontested / no two-party margin
Nathan SosaDemocratic current officeholder
2026 State House contest2021 plan operative since 2022
Uncontested / no two-party marginSafe baseline
14,547 registeredMay 2026 · D 7,189 · R 43,660
Nathan SosaNathan Sosa — uncontested D
Charles RossCharles Ross — uncontested R
Verified baseline
Uncontested / no two-party margin
2024 State House general marginUncontested / no two-party margin
May 2026 Oregon SOSExact current district row joined
2021 adopted planCurrent boundaries used beginning 2022

SOURCE STATUS · May 2026 registration · 2026 Oregon results · historical results · boundary authority.

HD-312026 State House contestDarcey Edwards · current RR+21.8
Darcey EdwardsRepublican current officeholder
2026 State House contest2021 plan operative since 2022
R+21.8Likely
15,272 registeredMay 2026 · D 17,106 · R 58,488
Tom ForestTom Forest ~49.8%; Rebecca Schaleger ~48.4%
Darcey EdwardsDarcey Edwards — uncontested R
Verified baseline
R+21.8
2024 State House general marginR+21.8
May 2026 Oregon SOSExact current district row joined
2021 adopted planCurrent boundaries used beginning 2022

SOURCE STATUS · May 2026 registration · 2026 Oregon results · historical results · boundary authority.

HD-322026 State House contestCyrus Javadi · current DR+4.4
Cyrus JavadiDemocratic current officeholder
2026 State House contest2021 plan operative since 2022
R+4.4Highly competitive
16,330 registeredMay 2026 · D 14,204 · R 56,046
Cyrus JavadiCyrus Javadi — uncontested D
Max ShermanMax Sherman ~39.8%; Adam Dean ~30.5%; Christian Honl remainder
Verified baseline
R+4.4
2024 State House general marginR+4.4
May 2026 Oregon SOSExact current district row joined
2021 adopted planCurrent boundaries used beginning 2022

SOURCE STATUS · May 2026 registration · 2026 Oregon results · historical results · boundary authority.

HD-332026 State House contestShannon Jones Isadore · current DD+71.0
Shannon Jones IsadoreDemocratic current officeholder
2026 State House contest2021 plan operative since 2022
D+71.0Safe baseline
25,659 registeredMay 2026 · D 3,396 · R 51,450
Shannon Jones IsadoreShannon Jones Isadore — uncontested D
Ciatta ThompsonCiatta Thompson — uncontested R
Verified baseline
D+71.0
2024 State House general marginD+71.0
May 2026 Oregon SOSExact current district row joined
2021 adopted planCurrent boundaries used beginning 2022

SOURCE STATUS · May 2026 registration · 2026 Oregon results · historical results · boundary authority.

HD-342026 State House contestMari Watanabe · current DD+43.0
Mari WatanabeDemocratic current officeholder
2026 State House contest2021 plan operative since 2022
D+43.0Safe baseline
16,138 registeredMay 2026 · D 6,671 · R 44,750
Mari WatanabeMari Watanabe — uncontested D
Shaunie CousinsShaunie Cousins — uncontested R
Verified baseline
D+43.0
2024 State House general marginD+43.0
May 2026 Oregon SOSExact current district row joined
2021 adopted planCurrent boundaries used beginning 2022

SOURCE STATUS · May 2026 registration · 2026 Oregon results · historical results · boundary authority.

HD-352026 State House contestFarrah Chaichi · current DD+38.1
Farrah ChaichiDemocratic current officeholder
2026 State House contest2021 plan operative since 2022
D+38.1Safe baseline
13,712 registeredMay 2026 · D 5,553 · R 40,724
Farrah ChaichiFarrah Chaichi ~84.8%; Johan Arteaga Cruz ~14.8%
Dan MartinDan Martin — uncontested R
Verified baseline
D+38.1
2024 State House general marginD+38.1
May 2026 Oregon SOSExact current district row joined
2021 adopted planCurrent boundaries used beginning 2022

SOURCE STATUS · May 2026 registration · 2026 Oregon results · historical results · boundary authority.

HD-362026 State House contestHai Pham · current DD+25.9
Hai PhamDemocratic current officeholder
2026 State House contest2021 plan operative since 2022
D+25.9Safe baseline
18,571 registeredMay 2026 · D 10,448 · R 54,544
Hai PhamHai Pham — uncontested D
Michael OrthMichael Orth — uncontested R
Verified baseline
D+25.9
2024 State House general marginD+25.9
May 2026 Oregon SOSExact current district row joined
2021 adopted planCurrent boundaries used beginning 2022

SOURCE STATUS · May 2026 registration · 2026 Oregon results · historical results · boundary authority.

HD-372026 State House contestJules Walters · current DD+22.7
Jules WaltersDemocratic current officeholder
2026 State House contest2021 plan operative since 2022
D+22.7Likely
18,412 registeredMay 2026 · D 11,533 · R 50,924
Jules WaltersJules Walters — uncontested D
Chad ParkerChad Parker — uncontested R
Verified baseline
D+22.7
2024 State House general marginD+22.7
May 2026 Oregon SOSExact current district row joined
2021 adopted planCurrent boundaries used beginning 2022

SOURCE STATUS · May 2026 registration · 2026 Oregon results · historical results · boundary authority.

HD-382026 State House contestDaniel Nguyen · current DUncontested / no two-party margin
Daniel NguyenDemocratic current officeholder
2026 State House contest2021 plan operative since 2022
Uncontested / no two-party marginSafe baseline
24,939 registeredMay 2026 · D 8,109 · R 52,383
Daniel NguyenDaniel Nguyen ~72.7%; John Wasielewski ~27.2%
—No Republican primary nominee listed
Verified baseline
Uncontested / no two-party margin
2024 State House general marginUncontested / no two-party margin
May 2026 Oregon SOSExact current district row joined
2021 adopted planCurrent boundaries used beginning 2022

SOURCE STATUS · May 2026 registration · 2026 Oregon results · historical results · boundary authority.

HD-392026 State House contestApril Dobson · current DD+9.1
April DobsonDemocratic current officeholder
2026 State House contest2021 plan operative since 2022
D+9.1Competitive
15,668 registeredMay 2026 · D 10,553 · R 51,168
April DobsonApril Dobson — uncontested D
—No Republican primary nominee listed
Verified baseline
D+9.1
2024 State House general marginD+9.1
May 2026 Oregon SOSExact current district row joined
2021 adopted planCurrent boundaries used beginning 2022

SOURCE STATUS · May 2026 registration · 2026 Oregon results · historical results · boundary authority.

HD-402026 State House contestAnnessa Hartman · current DD+11.9
Annessa HartmanDemocratic current officeholder
2026 State House contest2021 plan operative since 2022
D+11.9Lean / watch
17,303 registeredMay 2026 · D 12,825 · R 53,403
Michael SugarMichael Sugar ~71.3%; Charles Gallia ~28.2%
Adam BakerAdam Baker ~51.1%; Elizabeth Leslie ~48.3%
Verified baseline
D+11.9
2024 State House general marginD+11.9
May 2026 Oregon SOSExact current district row joined
2021 adopted planCurrent boundaries used beginning 2022

SOURCE STATUS · May 2026 registration · 2026 Oregon results · historical results · boundary authority.

HD-412026 State House contestMark Gamba · current DD+59.9
Mark GambaDemocratic current officeholder
2026 State House contest2021 plan operative since 2022
D+59.9Safe baseline
28,466 registeredMay 2026 · D 6,186 · R 55,015
Mark GambaMark Gamba ~93.6%; Priyesh Krishnan ~6.1%
Elvis ClarkElvis Clark — uncontested R
Verified baseline
D+59.9
2024 State House general marginD+59.9
May 2026 Oregon SOSExact current district row joined
2021 adopted planCurrent boundaries used beginning 2022

SOURCE STATUS · May 2026 registration · 2026 Oregon results · historical results · boundary authority.

HD-422026 State House contestRob Nosse · current DUncontested / no two-party margin
Rob NosseDemocratic current officeholder
2026 State House contest2021 plan operative since 2022
Uncontested / no two-party marginSafe baseline
33,175 registeredMay 2026 · D 1,795 · R 55,476
Rob NosseRob Nosse — uncontested D
—No Republican primary nominee listed
Verified baseline
Uncontested / no two-party margin
2024 State House general marginUncontested / no two-party margin
May 2026 Oregon SOSExact current district row joined
2021 adopted planCurrent boundaries used beginning 2022

SOURCE STATUS · May 2026 registration · 2026 Oregon results · historical results · boundary authority.

HD-432026 State House contestTawna Sanchez · current DD+84.5
Tawna SanchezDemocratic current officeholder
2026 State House contest2021 plan operative since 2022
D+84.5Safe baseline
33,646 registeredMay 2026 · D 1,834 · R 55,009
Tawna SanchezTawna Sanchez ~94.7%; Cye Sterling ~5.0%
Tim LeMasterTim LeMaster — uncontested R
Verified baseline
D+84.5
2024 State House general marginD+84.5
May 2026 Oregon SOSExact current district row joined
2021 adopted planCurrent boundaries used beginning 2022

SOURCE STATUS · May 2026 registration · 2026 Oregon results · historical results · boundary authority.

HD-442026 State House contestTravis Nelson · current DUncontested / no two-party margin
Travis NelsonDemocratic current officeholder
2026 State House contest2021 plan operative since 2022
Uncontested / no two-party marginSafe baseline
26,735 registeredMay 2026 · D 2,833 · R 50,310
Travis NelsonTravis Nelson — uncontested D
Margo LoganMargo Logan — uncontested R
Verified baseline
Uncontested / no two-party margin
2024 State House general marginUncontested / no two-party margin
May 2026 Oregon SOSExact current district row joined
2021 adopted planCurrent boundaries used beginning 2022

SOURCE STATUS · May 2026 registration · 2026 Oregon results · historical results · boundary authority.

HD-452026 State House contestThuy Tran · current DUncontested / no two-party margin
Thuy TranDemocratic current officeholder
2026 State House contest2021 plan operative since 2022
Uncontested / no two-party marginSafe baseline
28,850 registeredMay 2026 · D 4,051 · R 52,208
Thuy TranThuy Tran — uncontested D
Jason BoyceJason Boyce — uncontested R
Verified baseline
Uncontested / no two-party margin
2024 State House general marginUncontested / no two-party margin
May 2026 Oregon SOSExact current district row joined
2021 adopted planCurrent boundaries used beginning 2022

SOURCE STATUS · May 2026 registration · 2026 Oregon results · historical results · boundary authority.

HD-462026 State House contestWilly Chotzen · current DD+65.4
Willy ChotzenDemocratic current officeholder
2026 State House contest2021 plan operative since 2022
D+65.4Safe baseline
24,041 registeredMay 2026 · D 3,778 · R 49,426
Willy ChotzenWilly Chotzen — uncontested D
Leo MorleyLeo Morley — uncontested R
Verified baseline
D+65.4
2024 State House general marginD+65.4
May 2026 Oregon SOSExact current district row joined
2021 adopted planCurrent boundaries used beginning 2022

SOURCE STATUS · May 2026 registration · 2026 Oregon results · historical results · boundary authority.

HD-472026 State House contestAndrea Valderrama · current DUncontested / no two-party margin
Andrea ValderramaDemocratic current officeholder
2026 State House contest2021 plan operative since 2022
Uncontested / no two-party marginSafe baseline
17,007 registeredMay 2026 · D 5,953 · R 44,652
Andrea ValderramaAndrea Valderrama — uncontested D
—No Republican primary nominee listed
Verified baseline
Uncontested / no two-party margin
2024 State House general marginUncontested / no two-party margin
May 2026 Oregon SOSExact current district row joined
2021 adopted planCurrent boundaries used beginning 2022

SOURCE STATUS · May 2026 registration · 2026 Oregon results · historical results · boundary authority.

HD-482026 State House contestLamar Wise · current DD+6.2
Lamar WiseDemocratic current officeholder
2026 State House contest2021 plan operative since 2022
D+6.2Competitive
14,388 registeredMay 2026 · D 9,371 · R 47,099
Lamar WiseLamar Wise — uncontested D
Andrew MorrisonAndrew Morrison — uncontested R
Verified baseline
D+6.2
2024 State House general marginD+6.2
May 2026 Oregon SOSExact current district row joined
2021 adopted planCurrent boundaries used beginning 2022

SOURCE STATUS · May 2026 registration · 2026 Oregon results · historical results · boundary authority.

HD-492026 State House contestZach Hudson · current DD+11.9
Zach HudsonDemocratic current officeholder
2026 State House contest2021 plan operative since 2022
D+11.9Lean / watch
13,559 registeredMay 2026 · D 8,224 · R 44,528
Zach HudsonZach Hudson — uncontested D
Ann WalkerAnn Walker — uncontested R
Verified baseline
D+11.9
2024 State House general marginD+11.9
May 2026 Oregon SOSExact current district row joined
2021 adopted planCurrent boundaries used beginning 2022

SOURCE STATUS · May 2026 registration · 2026 Oregon results · historical results · boundary authority.

HD-502026 State House contestRicki Ruiz · current DD+9.3
Ricki RuizDemocratic current officeholder
2026 State House contest2021 plan operative since 2022
D+9.3Competitive
14,037 registeredMay 2026 · D 9,744 · R 46,849
Ricki RuizRicki Ruiz — uncontested D
Brian GrayBrian Gray — uncontested R
Verified baseline
D+9.3
2024 State House general marginD+9.3
May 2026 Oregon SOSExact current district row joined
2021 adopted planCurrent boundaries used beginning 2022

SOURCE STATUS · May 2026 registration · 2026 Oregon results · historical results · boundary authority.

HD-512026 State House contestMatt Bunch · current RUncontested / no two-party margin
Matt BunchRepublican current officeholder
2026 State House contest2021 plan operative since 2022
Uncontested / no two-party marginSafe baseline
13,662 registeredMay 2026 · D 19,657 · R 57,276
Darla MeadDarla Mead ~71.1%; Joseph Richards ~27.9%
Matt BunchMatt Bunch ~73.3%; Dana Hindman-Allen ~26.3%
Verified baseline
Uncontested / no two-party margin
2024 State House general marginUncontested / no two-party margin
May 2026 Oregon SOSExact current district row joined
2021 adopted planCurrent boundaries used beginning 2022

SOURCE STATUS · May 2026 registration · 2026 Oregon results · historical results · boundary authority.

HD-522026 State House contestJeff Helfrich · current RR+3.8
Jeff HelfrichRepublican current officeholder
2026 State House contest2021 plan operative since 2022
R+3.8Highly competitive
15,995 registeredMay 2026 · D 13,370 · R 53,263
Hank SandersHank Sanders ~45.1%; David Osborn ~35%; Bernard Seeger/Nick Poublon remainder
Scott HegeScott Hege ~71.3%; Darcy LaPier ~17.1%; remaining GOP field
Verified baseline
R+3.8
2024 State House general marginR+3.8
May 2026 Oregon SOSExact current district row joined
2021 adopted planCurrent boundaries used beginning 2022

SOURCE STATUS · May 2026 registration · 2026 Oregon results · historical results · boundary authority.

HD-532026 State House contestEmerson Levy · current DD+8.6
Emerson LevyDemocratic current officeholder
2026 State House contest2021 plan operative since 2022
D+8.6Competitive
18,043 registeredMay 2026 · D 16,192 · R 60,269
Emerson LevyEmerson Levy — uncontested D
Michael SummersMichael Summers — uncontested R
Verified baseline
D+8.6
2024 State House general marginD+8.6
May 2026 Oregon SOSExact current district row joined
2021 adopted planCurrent boundaries used beginning 2022

SOURCE STATUS · May 2026 registration · 2026 Oregon results · historical results · boundary authority.

HD-542026 State House contestJason Kropf · current DUncontested / no two-party margin
Jason KropfDemocratic current officeholder
2026 State House contest2021 plan operative since 2022
Uncontested / no two-party marginSafe baseline
20,008 registeredMay 2026 · D 10,969 · R 56,142
Jason KropfJason Kropf ~88.4%; Andrew Caruana ~11.6%
—No Republican primary nominee listed
Verified baseline
Uncontested / no two-party margin
2024 State House general marginUncontested / no two-party margin
May 2026 Oregon SOSExact current district row joined
2021 adopted planCurrent boundaries used beginning 2022

SOURCE STATUS · May 2026 registration · 2026 Oregon results · historical results · boundary authority.

HD-552026 State House contestE. Werner Reschke · current RR+39.4
E. Werner ReschkeRepublican current officeholder
2026 State House contest2021 plan operative since 2022
R+39.4Safe baseline
10,347 registeredMay 2026 · D 22,106 · R 58,462
Colby SimmonsColby Simmons — uncontested D
E. Werner ReschkeE. Werner Reschke — uncontested R
Verified baseline
R+39.4
2024 State House general marginR+39.4
May 2026 Oregon SOSExact current district row joined
2021 adopted planCurrent boundaries used beginning 2022

SOURCE STATUS · May 2026 registration · 2026 Oregon results · historical results · boundary authority.

HD-562026 State House contestEmily McIntire · current RUncontested / no two-party margin
Emily McIntireRepublican current officeholder
2026 State House contest2021 plan operative since 2022
Uncontested / no two-party marginSafe baseline
8,288 registeredMay 2026 · D 19,200 · R 53,079
—No Democratic primary nominee listed
Emily McIntireEmily McIntire — uncontested R
Verified baseline
Uncontested / no two-party margin
2024 State House general marginUncontested / no two-party margin
May 2026 Oregon SOSExact current district row joined
2021 adopted planCurrent boundaries used beginning 2022

SOURCE STATUS · May 2026 registration · 2026 Oregon results · historical results · boundary authority.

HD-572026 State House contestGreg Smith · current RUncontested / no two-party margin
Greg SmithRepublican current officeholder
2026 State House contest2021 plan operative since 2022
Uncontested / no two-party marginSafe baseline
6,816 registeredMay 2026 · D 13,746 · R 44,320
—No Democratic primary nominee listed
Greg SmithGreg Smith ~55%; Jim Doherty ~44.7%
Verified baseline
Uncontested / no two-party margin
2024 State House general marginUncontested / no two-party margin
May 2026 Oregon SOSExact current district row joined
2021 adopted planCurrent boundaries used beginning 2022

SOURCE STATUS · May 2026 registration · 2026 Oregon results · historical results · boundary authority.

HD-582026 State House contestBobby Levy · current RUncontested / no two-party margin
Bobby LevyRepublican current officeholder
2026 State House contest2021 plan operative since 2022
Uncontested / no two-party marginSafe baseline
8,241 registeredMay 2026 · D 20,382 · R 51,923
Brian CampbellBrian Campbell — uncontested D
Bobby LevyBobby Levy — uncontested R
Verified baseline
Uncontested / no two-party margin
2024 State House general marginUncontested / no two-party margin
May 2026 Oregon SOSExact current district row joined
2021 adopted planCurrent boundaries used beginning 2022

SOURCE STATUS · May 2026 registration · 2026 Oregon results · historical results · boundary authority.

HD-592026 State House contestVikki Breese-Iverson · current RR+43.5
Vikki Breese-IversonRepublican current officeholder
2026 State House contest2021 plan operative since 2022
R+43.5Safe baseline
10,274 registeredMay 2026 · D 23,586 · R 59,881
Lawrence JonesLawrence Jones — uncontested D
Vikki Breese-IversonVikki Breese-Iverson — uncontested R
Verified baseline
R+43.5
2024 State House general marginR+43.5
May 2026 Oregon SOSExact current district row joined
2021 adopted planCurrent boundaries used beginning 2022

SOURCE STATUS · May 2026 registration · 2026 Oregon results · historical results · boundary authority.

HD-602026 State House contestMark Owens · current RUncontested / no two-party margin
Mark OwensRepublican current officeholder
2026 State House contest2021 plan operative since 2022
Uncontested / no two-party marginSafe baseline
5,882 registeredMay 2026 · D 20,766 · R 49,091
Beth SpellBeth Spell — uncontested D
Mark OwensMark Owens — uncontested R
Verified baseline
Uncontested / no two-party margin
2024 State House general marginUncontested / no two-party margin
May 2026 Oregon SOSExact current district row joined
2021 adopted planCurrent boundaries used beginning 2022

SOURCE STATUS · May 2026 registration · 2026 Oregon results · historical results · boundary authority.

09 · JUDICIAL / NONPARTISAN

Statewide judicial layer

7Supreme Court justicesElected statewide · 6-year terms
13Court of Appeals judgesElected statewide · 6-year terms
Pos. 4Supreme Court primaryChristopher Garrett
1 / 9 / 12 / 13Appeals positions2026 statewide ballot layer
Nonpartisan primary examples: Supreme Court Position 4 — Christopher Garrett 653,189; Court of Appeals Position 1 — Ryan O’Connor 648,162; Position 9 — Jacqueline Kamins 644,399. Judicial contests remain separate from partisan cascade assumptions.
10 · PARTICIPATION / AGE

Participation layer

41.14%2026 primary turnout
1.265MPrimary ballots counted
3.075MActive primary electorate
MeasureCohort participation gapsDo not infer individual preference
Use rule: age/cohort data measure participation gaps—registration, ballots cast and voting mode. They are not treated as partisan coefficients without observed evidence.
11 · VOTE BY MAIL

Voting-mode layer

Oct. 14General ballots begin mailing
Nov. 3Election Day
8 PMDropbox receipt deadline
PostmarkMailed-ballot ruleMust be postmarked by Election Day
Model rule: Oregon’s vote-by-mail system means ballot-return velocity is a core participation variable. It is modeled separately from preference shift.
12 · CORE STRATEGY

Electoral Cascade Model — measure the wave

1. Statewide environment

Governor + U.S. Senate establish top-ticket swing and candidate-specific delta.

2. District transmission

Translate statewide movement into each CD/SD/HD conditional on that district’s verified historical baseline.

3. Candidate effect

Estimate incumbency, open-seat and candidate-specific residual rather than assuming straight-ticket voting.

4. Turnout decomposition

Separate preference shift from participation changes by geography, age cohort and vote-by-mail timing.

VoteShare[r,d] = Baseline[d] + β₁·StatewideSwing + β₂·Incumbency + β₃·TurnoutShift + β₄·CandidateResidual + RegionEffect + ε
ScenarioPurposeWhat is not assumed
Statewide D −2Negative-environment sensitivityNo automatic two-point movement in every district
Statewide evenLocal-fundamentals referenceNo straight-ticket voting
Statewide D +2Positive-environment sensitivityNo guaranteed chamber flip
Statewide D +5Strong-wave stress testNo one-to-one five-point cascade
Scientific standard: coefficients should be fitted on prior cycles, tested out-of-sample, and reported with error and uncertainty intervals. A “wave” is an empirical scenario only after transmission is backtested.
13 · METHODOLOGY

Michigan-parity invariant

State-specific election rules may change terminology, candidate flow, ballot mechanics and applicable offices, but they do not remove the core evidence architecture: electorate → historical baseline → statewide anchors → district candidate/results → participation → voting mode → cascade → source audit.

Oregon adaptation: closed major-party primary mechanics, vote-by-mail, 15/30 Senate cycle, 60/60 House cycle, statewide nonpartisan judicial contests, and the post-2021 boundary plan are explicit variables—not hidden deviations from the template.
14 · SOURCE AUDIT

Primary source stack

Oregon Secretary of State — May 2026 voter registration by congressional, Senate and representative district; May 19, 2026 primary reporting; candidate filings; election history and precinct data.

May 2026 registration report · 2026 results portal · historical data

Oregon Legislative Assembly — chamber structure, current legislators, district pairing and redistricting authority.

Legislature · 2021 redistricting

Oregon Judicial Department — Supreme Court and Court of Appeals structure and current judges. OJD

Analytical cross-checks: OPB 2026 election coverage and certified/historical result summaries are used to cross-check candidate-result interpretation where the state portal is difficult to extract as a single consolidated table. The Oregon SOS remains controlling for certification.